ASOS – Sell Side Consensus Forecast
| FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Minimum | Maximum | Consensus | Minimum | Maximum | Consensus | Minimum | Maximum | |
| GMV growth % | (2.6)% | (6.2)% | 0.2% | 3.0% | (3.3)% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 8.0% |
| Revenue growth % | (4.2)% | (9.7)% | (1.0)% | 2.5% | (2.4)% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 0.0% | 6.0% |
| Gross margin % | 48.6% | 49.1% | 48.1% | 49.1% | 48.6% | 49.9% | 49.4% | 49.3% | 49.9% |
| Adjusted EBITDA £m | £158m | £150m | £169m | £181m | £171m | £197m | £196m | £173m | £226m |
| Adjusted PBT £m | (£55)m | (£79)m | (£20)m | (£30)m | (£61)m | £4m | (£14)m | (£51)m | £18m |
| Free Cash Flow £m | £7m | (£10)m | £26m | £27m | £6m | £80m | £38m | £15m | £93m |
| Capex £m | £95m | £81m | £115m | £97m | £83m | £118m | £99m | £85m | £116m |
| Net Cash / (Net Debt) £m | (£172)m | (£195)m | (£129)m | (£145)m | (£196)m | (£85)m | (£107)m | (£188)m | (£31)m |
Reflecting 10 contributors. Last updated: 15th December 2025.
The adjusted figures above include only the models that are based on the below definitions:
- Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) is defined as adjusted retail sales plus revenue attributable to Flexible Fulfilment partners, net of returns and excluding sales tax.
- Adjusted EBITDA is profit before tax, interest, depreciation, amortisation, impairments and adjusting items.
- Adjusted profit/(loss) before tax excludes items recognised in reported profit/(loss) before tax which, if included, could distort comparability between years.
In determining which items to exclude, the Group considers items which are significant either by virtue of their size and/or nature, or that are non-recurring. - Free Cash Flow is net cash generated from operating activities, less payments to acquire intangible and tangible assets, payment of the principal portion of lease liabilities and net finance expenses.
- Capex is excluding any IFRS16 capitalised leases
- Net Cash / (Net Debt) is cash and cash equivalents less the carrying value of borrowings (including accrued interest) drawn down at period-end, but excluding outstanding lease liabilities. The forecasts only include analysts who have included the TSTM JV and re-financing impact.
Please note that any opinions, estimates or forecasts regarding ASOS' performance made by analysts are theirs alone and do not represent opinions, forecasts or predictions of ASOS or its management. ASOS does not by its reference above or distribution imply its endorsement of or concurrence with such information, conclusions or recommendations. ASOS has not commented on or verified any individual opinions, estimates or forecasts, nor does it intend to do so in the future, and ASOS shall not be liable for any errors in the content of the analysts’ research material, or for any action taken in reliance thereon. Furthermore, ASOS may at any time be in possession of information that may affect analysts’ opinions, estimates or forecasts and ASOS has not commented upon, reviewed or updated, and is under no obligation to comment upon, review or update, their research.
